Written by: Frank Wolff
Supervised by: Nicola Bonsegna
Edited by: Jack Kirk
At the 34th NATO summit held in The Hague on the 24th and 25th of June, heads of state and government reaffirmed their commitment to collective defence and Article 5 of the Washington Treaty (NATO, 2025). Before the summit there was uncertainty surrounding the United States, due to President Trump’s previous threats of withdrawal from NATO and his refusal to give a clear pledge to back Article 5. Trump said he left the summit with more of an understanding about the importance of the alliance and was impressed by the passion from other world leaders for their countries (Ataman & Sebastian, 2025). Secretary General Mark Rutte made it clear that the United States is totally committed to NATO and Article 5 and criticised the press for continuously questioning the organisation’s stability (Krupa et al., 2025).
Given current security threats and challenges, NATO allies have agreed to commit to investing 5% of GDP in core defence, as well as other defence and security-related spending by 2035 (NATO, 2025). The breakdown of the annual 5% includes at least 3.5% of GDP for conventional defence such as aircraft, tanks and ammunition, with the remaining 1.5% committed to protecting critical infrastructure, ensuring preparedness, and strengthening members’ defence industrial base. The details regarding the focus of the spending will depend on core defence requirements agreed annually, and the trajectory and balance of spending under the new plan will be reviewed in 2029, amidst a different strategic environment and changes in capabilities.
While the 5% GDP threshold was agreed upon, Spain stated that it would not meet this target and could only commit to 2.1% of GDP (Reuters, 2025). This prompted anger from Trump and questions from other members, including Belgian prime minister Bart De Wever, who noted that one outlier could lead to other member states (MS) interpreting the text in the same way (Erlanger & Jakes, 2025). This would open the door for other nations that had expressed concerns regarding the challenges of reaching this new level of defence spending, such as Slovakia.
NATO’s relationship with Ukraine was also made clear at the summit. NATO allies reaffirmed their commitments to provide support to Ukraine, with Rutte promising continued supply of money and equipment (Jakes, 2025). However, great lengths were taken to keep Trump onboard, and the main focus of the summit was on the increase in defence spending rather than the war in Ukraine. Rutte was deferential towards Trump and sent him personal messages congratulating him for achieving the 5% spending target, arguing that no other American president would have been able to get this done (Ataman & Sebastian, 2025). Trump eventually met with Zelensky after missing a scheduled meeting at the G7 summit the week prior, citing the conflict between Iran and Israel. The meeting was ultimately reduced to the sidelines, although Zelensky did meet with other European leaders (Erlanger & Jakes, 2025).
The full impact of the summit is yet to be seen. Over the coming years, if NATO members show progress in increasing their defence spending, the summit may be regarded as a success. If it is clear that targets are not being met, a re-evaluation of the situation may be needed. As the war in Ukraine evolves, the commitment and backing of NATO may have to adapt. Only time will tell if the 34th NATO summit in The Hague will be remembered as a turning point.
Bibliography
Ataman, J., & Sebastian, C. (2025, June 25). Inside the NATO charm offensive that shocked as much as it delivered. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/25/europe/rutte-daddy-trump-nato-ukraine-intl-latam
Erlanger, S., & Jakes, L. (2025, June 25). In a Win for Trump, NATO Agrees to a Big Increase in Military Spending. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/25/world/europe/nato-increase-military-spending-trump.html
Jakes, L. (2025, June 25). NATO Agrees to Boost Military Spending as Trump Praises Allies, but Criticizes Spain. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/25/us/politics/nato-gdp-defense-spending-trump.html
Kirby, P. (2025, June 25). Nato agrees spike in defence spending and stresses “ironclad” security guarantee. BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4en8djwyko
Krupa, J., Sabbagh, D., & Giuffrida, A. (2025, June 25). Nato leaders confirm defence spending will rise to 5% of GDP and say support for members is “ironclad” – Europe live. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/25/nato-donald-trump-mark-rutte-europe-latest-live-news?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with%3Ablock-685bf27a8f087751affb208a#block-685bf27a8f087751affb208a
NATO. (2025). The Hague Summit Declaration issued by NATO Heads of State and Government (2025). https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_236705.htm
Reuters. (2025, June 25). Spain expects no repercussions from not meeting NATO 5% spending target. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spain-does-not-expect-repercussions-not-meeting-natos-5-spending-target-2025-06-25/
