Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Warfare

The field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is evolving quickly. New artificially intelligent technologies are being developed continuously, and sometimes they can be ground-breaking. These technologies are increasingly incorporated into diverse aspects of everyday life and are becoming crucial for commercial, economic and scientific development and innovation. It is not surprising that the defence sector is also seeking to take advantage of AI and introduce these new technologies into the security arena. As explained by Murugesan (2022, p. 4), AI can be used, among other things, “for repetitive tasks to free up security staff for projects that require human ingenuity.” Furthermore, testifying to the benefits of AI, “NATO Member States have already started to invest in this technology and have incorporated it in their defence strategy” (Carlo, 2021, p. 269). Despite its benefits, AI is expected to bring “dramatic changes in the strategy, operational art, tactics and doctrines of the warring sides” (Ploumis, 2022, p. 1). On this line, changes need to be carefully considered and studied to prevent the risks they could engender. For example, AI technologies “have a substantial impact on cyber warfare, but could have an adverse effect and significantly increase the number and threat level of cyber-attacks in the future” (Kline et al., 2019). AI systems are thus expected to impact “the conduct of warfare, bring new capabilities into being, and alter power equations” (Singh Gill, 2019, p. 169). Drawing from these assumptions, this paper aims to study how AI can impact the nature of conflicts. In particular, the paper seeks to better understand the benefits and risks associated with the introduction of AI technologies in the security sector for military joint operations, considering technological compatibility and ethical considerations. How do developments of Artificial Intelligence Systems in the defence sector affect military cooperation? What are the benefits and risks associated with the inclusion of Artificial Intelligence in the defence sector?

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European Defence giants Leonardo and Rheinmetall form a 50/50 Joint Venture for the development of the next Land Defence Systems

The Italian manufacturer Leonardo and the German arms maker Rheinmetall signed a strategic partnership on 3 July 2024 to establish a 50/50 joint venture for the industrial development and the subsequent commercialisation of a new battle tank for the Italian Army’s ground system programs. The new-born entity will be based in Italy, where 60 % of the overall production will take place (Leonardo, 2024). Over the next ten years, the two industrial groups aim to win contracts worth an estimated 20 billion euros from the Italian Army (Dragoni, 2024). The terms of the agreement will have a positive impact on the Italian supply chain as a whole and could capitalise more than 50 billion US dollars on the European market, as preannounced by Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger (Reuters, 2024). The Memorandum of Understanding signed by the two counterparts is now subject to approval by the European Commission and national competition authorities.

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What is in the Inbox of the EU’s Next Foreign Policy Representative, Kaja Kallas?

At the European Council Summit in Brussels on the 27th of June, EU leaders gathered to approve the bloc’s new leadership following the outcome of the European elections. Among the appointments, Kaja Kallas was tapped as the EU’s next High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, succeeding the Spanish Josep Borrell. Currently the Prime Minister of Estonia, Kallas recognised the “enormous responsibility” she is entrusted with and reiterated her commitment to strengthening the EU’s defence capabilities (Kallas, 2024). Before being talked about for this position, her name had floated to lead NATO, as well as for the proposed role of EU Defense Commissioner, which Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised to create if re-elected (McElvoy, 2024). Just like Von der Leyen and future EU Council President Antonio Costa, Kallas will need to get formal approval from EU lawmakers and the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee in the next fall (Nardelli and Tammik, 2024).

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A New Beginning for European Defence Fund, Reinforced by a Programme (EDIP) and a Strategy (EDIS)

The European Defence Fund (EDF) needs to review its strategy and programming after only three years of existence. It was created in 2021 under the European Union Global Strategy (EUGS), thanks to the push made by EU Member states at the time. The political will to invest in European security has gained significant momentum thanks largely to the EDF, particularly in strengthening the European Defence and Technology Industrial Basis (EDTIB). The objective is to fund armament and spend in common. The European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS), proposed by the Commission in March 2024, is more precise than the EUGS on defence matters and marks the EU’s first-ever defence strategy. The EDIS was created to achieve industrial defence readiness by 2035 and strengthen the European Defence and Technological Industrial Basis (EDTIB) (European Commission 2024b). This strategy will influence the EDF’s programming and its presentation in the next Multi-Financial Framework.

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The application of the Law of the Sea to the EU legal system and its implications for European Defence

States have long been considered the primary, but not only, subjects of International Law. To be considered a State, Article 1 of the Montevideo Convention (1933) sets out four criteria: a permanent population, a defined territory, a government, and the capacity to enter into relations with other states (Montevideo Convention, 1933). A State's sovereignty is here limited to its territory, over which its legal system has complete jurisdiction. However, defined territory is not uncomplicated, as States control their airspace and have a border to outer space, and coastal State’s territory encompasses maritime zones surrounding their land (Gioia, 2019). This article analyses the International and European legal framework regulating States in their maritime areas. Then, it will focus on the interaction between those legal sources and their implications for European Defence.

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