Recent developments in the three Baltic states point towards a large-scale effort to modernise their respective land forces. This modernisation drive encompasses purchasing new weapons systems and updating existing weaponry. Estonia, for instance, has allotted up to €40 million to acquire additional ground force vehicles, such as the Republic of Korea made K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzer, of which it expects the delivery of six by next year. Simultaneously, the smallest of the three Baltic states is also currently updating its existing fleet of CV90 Armoured Combat Vehicles by transforming them into a variety of different infantry support vehicles. Likewise, Latvia and Lithuania also acquire large amounts of new ground force vehicles. Particularly noteworthy is the joint agreement between Latvia and Finland. The former is reported to have ordered 200 Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs), a purchase estimated to be worth upwards of €200 million.
Correspondingly, the three Baltic states have increased their defence budgets. Estonia and Latvia’s defence budget is now at around €750 million, while the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence will have over €1 billion access. Remarkably all three states have, therefore, met the NATO funding pledge, which asks member states to devote the equivalent of 2% of their GDP to their defence budgets, a goal that has remained elusive for most NATO members. This increase in funding for – and expansion of – the Baltic militaries is, of course, not occurring in a vacuum. This development has to be understood in the context of the ongoing Ukraine crisis. Ever since the much-publicised initial Washington Post revelation in December of last year that the Russian Federation has garrisoned up to 175,000 troops in proximity to the Ukrainian border, tensions have been at a high point in Europe. Particularly in Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, policymakers and the public fear being among the first casualties if war broke out between Russia and NATO over Ukraine.
Thus, the Baltic armament program must be understood as an exercise in conventional deterrence. As Tony Lawrence, from the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) in Tallinn put it, the Baltic forces “should be able to inflict enough pain to make an adversary think twice” about invading. By purchasing hundreds of new APCs, Latvia, for instance, seeks to mechanise its infantry and enhance its anti-tank capabilities. The development of anti-tank weaponry is a crucial part of a credible deterrence strategy against Russia. However, despite the development of promising infantry and anti-tank capabilities, some experts warn that the Baltic states must not neglect anti-air defences of basic concerns, such as the stockpiling of small arms and ammunition.
Written by Johannes Krause
Bibliography:
Fish Tim, As Russia threatens Ukraine, Baltic nations work to update armored vehicle fleets,’ Breaking Defence. (2022) [online] Available at: https://breakingdefense.com/2022/01/as-russia-threatens-ukraine-baltic-nations-work-to-update-armored-vehicle-fleets/ [Accessed 3 February, 2022].
