Read more about the article A Window of Opportunity for European Defence? Rare Earths and the China – US Trade War
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A Window of Opportunity for European Defence? Rare Earths and the China – US Trade War

This paper explores the implications of China’s April 2025 Rare Earth Element (REE) export restrictions for European defence security. While targeting the US, the measures expose Europe’s reliance on both Chinese REEs and US defence technologies. The paper argues that this disruption presents a strategic opportunity for Europe to reduce critical material dependencies, strengthen its defence industrial base, and advance strategic autonomy. It assesses the role of REEs in military systems, Europe’s current vulnerabilities, and potential responses, including diversification, domestic processing, and innovation. Despite challenges such as environmental constraints and institutional fragmentation, the crisis offers a rare chance for Europe to reinforce defence resilience and redefine its role in an evolving global security landscape.

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30 June 2025
Read more about the article Toward Hybrid Deterrence: Conceptual Foundations and the Evolution of NATO Response
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Toward Hybrid Deterrence: Conceptual Foundations and the Evolution of NATO Response

Hybrid threats, leveraging ambiguity and asymmetry, increasingly challenge NATO’s deterrence and credibility. This paper critically examines NATO’s doctrinal evolution and responses to hybrid threats since first acknowledging cyber challenges in 2002. Despite doctrinal progress and tools like Counter-Hybrid Support Teams (CHSTs) and initiatives such as Baltic Sentry, NATO’s response remains largely reactive and fragmented, activated only post-crisis rather than proactively deterring threats. Ambiguous attribution and contested thresholds further hinder collective action. The analysis highlights persistent strategic gaps and concludes by asserting that credible hybrid deterrence cannot be improvised post hoc but must be embedded systematically into NATO’s doctrine and operational architecture, a concept that will be further developed in a forthcoming companion article.

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18 June 2025
Read more about the article Europe Adrift: The Incoming Trump Presidency and the EU’s Strategic Void in Ukraine
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Europe Adrift: The Incoming Trump Presidency and the EU’s Strategic Void in Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has exposed the critical state of the European Union’s defence and security strategies. At the same time, the EU’s Strategic Compass outlined a vision for greater defence integration, long-standing divides among member states persist, hindering coherent action. The initial unified response to Russia’s aggression has faded into a strategic divergence, with contrasting national priorities. The prospect of a Trump administration in 2025 exacerbates Europe’s security vulnerabilities, as Ukraine remains heavily dependent on US military aid. The failure to prepare for a US withdrawal leaves the EU strategically paralysed, risking both Kyiv’s sovereignty and Europe’s future security. This study explores the consequences of this strategic void and underlines the importance for the EU to develop a unified defence strategy.

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19 December 2024
Read more about the article Episode 4: European Deterrence and the Changing U.S. Strategy
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Episode 4: European Deterrence and the Changing U.S. Strategy

In this episode of StrategicALLY, hosts Bori Benedek and Zsigmond Tar sit down with Paul van Hooft, a defence and deterrence expert at RAND Europe, to explore the evolving dynamics of European security. The discussion covers critical topics such as NATO enlargement, European deterrence, and the shifting focus of American foreign policy from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. Mr. van Hooft provides context on the potential implications of a Trump administration on transatlantic relations, the war in Ukraine, and the strategic cohesion of European militaries. Drawing on his extensive research and publications, he discusses Europe’s reliance on the U.S. in key military sectors, the necessity for European fallback options, and the prospects for enhanced EU-NATO collaboration. Packed with expert insights, this episode offers a comprehensive analysis of the future of European defence in an increasingly multipolar world.

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21 November 2024
Read more about the article China Persists in Sanctioning U.S. Defence Giants.
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China Persists in Sanctioning U.S. Defence Giants.

Relations between the United States and China have been strained for a few years now, but tensions have increased in recent months due to several geopolitical events. One of them was the visit to Taipei by Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi last July, underpinning the United States’ support for Taiwan’s status. The current US Administration continues to adhere to the one China policy, as most other countries in the world do. In response, over the summer, Beijing increased the number of aggressive military exercises around the islands of the South China Sea, although China’s expert Dean Cheng of Heritage Foundation argued they were “likely pre-planned for months” (Cheng, 2022). Lately, Beijing appears to have at least partially aligned with Western thinking by calling on Russia to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, yet friction with Washington has been enhanced by Biden's latest statement regarding Taiwan’s sovereignty. In fact, China was strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposed to Biden’s comment (Reuters, 2022), when the President of the US declared that US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

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20 October 2022