On July 11^th and 12^th, 2023, NATO heads of state and government are convening in Vilnius, Lithuania, for the Alliance’s annual summit, which is very likely to prove a watershed moment in NATO’s recent history for several reasons. To begin with, in light of the ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine, leaders are set to approve the first comprehensive defence plans since the Cold War era, with ambitious rearrangements in terms of military mobility along NATO’s Eastern Flank. Secondly, as far as defence expenditure is concerned, Allied countries will deal with the proposal to turn the 2% ceiling into an investment floor. Thirdly, they will discuss the progress of Ukraine and Sweden’s membership bids, with debates around the opportunity for Kyiv to benefit from a fast-track procedure alongside compromises to encourage Turkey and Hungary to lift their veto on Stockholm’s accession. Lastly, NATO leaders will try to reach a consensus on Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s successor after the latter’s mandate has been extended three times.

This info flash aims at illustrating the areas where NATO allies are meant to deliver at the upcoming summit based on pledges made at previous meetings, as well as the most contentious issues on which consensus seems less likely. It will start by assessing whether commitments made at the 2022 Madrid Summit have been met (section I), followed by an overview of the Alliance’s reshaped defence plans in terms of capacity building and military interoperability along the Eastern Flank (section II). The analysis will then move on to the divisive issues of defence expenditure (section III) and the progress of Ukraine’s and Sweden’s path towards membership (section IV). It will conclude by hinting at the need for NATO to address security challenges beyond the Euro-Atlantic region, hence unpacking its new geographical areas of focus and the defence frameworks established with local partners (section V).