Europe Adrift: The Incoming Trump Presidency and the EU’s Strategic Void in Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has exposed the critical state of the European Union’s defence and security strategies. At the same time, the EU’s Strategic Compass outlined a vision for greater defence integration, long-standing divides among member states persist, hindering coherent action. The initial unified response to Russia’s aggression has faded into a strategic divergence, with contrasting national priorities. The prospect of a Trump administration in 2025 exacerbates Europe’s security vulnerabilities, as Ukraine remains heavily dependent on US military aid. The failure to prepare for a US withdrawal leaves the EU strategically paralysed, risking both Kyiv’s sovereignty and Europe’s future security. This study explores the consequences of this strategic void and underlines the importance for the EU to develop a unified defence strategy.

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Analysing the Strategic Implications of Russia’s “Oreshnik” Missile: The Next Stage of Russia’s Missile Strategy

From conventional missiles to more experimental hypersonic platforms, Russia is redefining missile warfare. On November 21st, Russia launched the Oreshnik missile in Ukraine, marking the first-ever use of a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile that can also carry a nuclear warhead. These advanced systems—capable of evading air defences and delivering precision strikes—are being tested extensively in Ukraine. They are not just battlefield tools; they are strategic signals to NATO and Europe about Russia’s evolving military might and a form of geopolitical blackmailing. The lack of adequate air defences to deter hypersonic missiles creates a new security dilemma for Europe. This Info Flash analyses the greater implications of Oreshnik in Russian missile strategy and, more importantly, what it means for Ukraine and its allies in the long-term.

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The Role of International Humanitarian Law in Human Rights Bodies: A Focus on the European Court of Human Rights

In the absence of a judicial body that would specifically deal with International Humanitarian Law (IHL), the role of its interpretation and enforcement often falls on human rights bodies, like the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR). This article will begin by recalling the theories developed by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). An analysis will then be conducted on the interplay between human rights and international humanitarian law within the European Court of Human Rights Jurisprudence. The Court’s judgments in the Al-Jedda and Hassan cases will be examined to understand how ECtHR interprets the relationship between human rights and IHL and, subsequently how this affects the protection granted to individuals by the European Convention on Human Rights.

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The Quest for a Common Strategic Culture in the EU: Challenges for the Development of a Coherent Political Autonomy

This paper explores the challenges of the European Union (EU) in developing a common strategic culture and, consequently, a coherent political autonomy on the international stage. By examining the evolution of the Union’s security narratives and the challenges these pose to its political autonomy, particularly in light of the war in Ukraine, the paper highlights that certain institutional mechanisms of intergovernmental nature and the discordance between the strategic interests of member states hinder the development of a collective European position. These challenges widen the capability-expectation gap of the EU and affect military coordination. In this regard, the lack of a common strategic culture also has an impact on the interoperability of military capabilities, as the varied priorities and defence strategies of member states complicate efforts to harmonise doctrines across the EU.

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The Evolution of EU Defence Policy: Strategic Compass and Industrial Implications

The article examines recent EU defence initiatives aimed at establishing a unified European Military Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). Key measures like the European Defence Investment Programme (EDIP) and European Defence Industry Reinforcement through the Common Procurement Act (EDIRPA), spurred by the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, reflect a shift towards greater EU defence unity and interoperability. Anchored by the 2022 Versailles Summit and the Strategic Compass, these efforts culminated in the 2024 European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS). The article highlights the Compass as a framework for achieving autonomy and interoperability while addressing structural challenges such as fragmented procurement and industry limitations. It also explores the debate over collective borrowing for defence, balancing national interests with EU security needs.

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