Written by Kristina Velimirovic
Edited by Manfred Sintorn
Supervised by Emile Clarke
This year marks the 60th anniversary of the Munich Security Conference (MSC). From February 16 to February 18, one of the central forums for debate on foreign and security policy took place in the Bavarian capital. The conference was marked by a palpable sense of urgency and concern regarding European defence. It was largely overshadowed by the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the fall of Avdiivka, the death/murder of Alexei Navalny, ammunition shortages in Ukraine, and former U.S. president and current Republican frontrunner Donald Trump’s comments on NATO (Dorman, 2024), all of which contributed to an uneasy atmosphere. This News Flash dissects the key topics and most significant issues and challenges in European defence and Transatlantic security policy covered throughout the conference. The present analysis explores the two following panel discussions as primary sources: (i) Europe’s Finest Hour? Building a Defense Union in Challenging Times (MSC, 2024a)and (ii) In It to Win It: The Future of Ukraine and Transatlantic Security (MSC, 2024b).
In a pivotal moment for Europe, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, announced that she will seek another term as head of the Commission. Von der Leyen outlined her ambitions for the next term at the MSC, emphasising the need to create a defence commissioner post to strengthen the EU’s defence capabilities. She indicated the post could go to a candidate from a Central or Eastern European country, but it has yet to be determined whether it will encompass the bloc’s defence industry or also a security operations and space dimension (Roussi, Posaner, & Cienski, 2024). Most probably, the primary focus of the role would be on collaborative defence coordination and procurement, as the European Commission lacks the authority to establish or command troops (Brzozowski, 2024). Overall, the move is geared towards fostering collaboration among EU member states, with an emphasis on efficiency and cost-effectiveness in defence initiatives.
In a bid to bolster defence production, von der Leyen referred to the forthcoming EU Defence Industrial Strategy (European Commission, 2023). The Commission President announced that the strategy is based on four pillars: (i) spending more, (ii) spending better – in reference to joint procurement and predictability aimed at military interoperability of armed forces -, (iii) spending on European industries/equipment and (iv) integrating Ukraine into the defence program. A flagship of the latter is exemplified by the proposed establishment of the EU-Ukraine defence innovation office in Kyiv.
As for the EU foreign and security policy, the High Representative/Vice President, Josep Borrell, outlined three main security challenges faced by the EU: credibility as a global player, strategic responsibility as a security and defence provider, and engagement with partners in the Global South in a bid to re-build trust and counteract Russian propaganda in the region (EEAS, 2024). Borrell also called for faster supply of (artillery) ammunition to Ukraine while emphasising the need to improve the EU’s defence industry in the mid-term (EEAS, 2024).
The value of synergy between a stronger Europe and a robust NATO was generally underscored in the face of evolving security challenges. Both EU leaders and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg emphasised the importance of interoperability and shared standards to strengthen the transatlantic partnership, in line with the agreement reached at NATO’s 2023 Vilnius Summit. Preserving transatlantic links is deemed essential, with a recognition that collective security requires a collaborative effort from both sides of the Atlantic. On his part, Stoltenberg underscored that while the global security landscape has become increasingly dangerous, NATO has fortified its capabilities and stressed that no NATO member state faces any imminent military threat from Russia (NATO, 2024).
Nevertheless, challenges within the alliance continue to persist, as shown by Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre’s assertion that nearly 80 per cent of NATO capacity is provided by non-EU nations – that is by the U.S., Canada, Türkiye, and Norway. Moreover, as U.S. support for Ukraine stalls and the re-election of Donald Trump grows increasingly likely, NATO allies are fearing U.S. abandonment, adding another layer of uncertainty to the complex European security landscape (Moens, Weise, & Von der Burchard, 2024). As the EU is faced with a looming prospect of being left to fend for itself, transforming Europe’s defence industry and increasing its support to Ukraine is increasingly imperative.
As the democratic world order is arriving at a crossroads, calls for unity, joint innovation and strategic collaboration are evocative of a collective commitment to ensuring Europe’s security and stability in an ever-evolving and unstable geopolitical landscape. The main message from Western leaders is to emphasise that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not only about Ukraine but indeed about the future of democracies and the liberal world order. Should Russia succeed in Ukraine, it is widely believed that it will continue its aggression towards the West and could become emboldened to strike at NATO territory, testing Article 5 on collective defence.
Bibliography
Dorman, Andrew. (2024, February 13). As Trump threatens NATO, is it time for Europe to get its act together? Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/02/trump-threatens-nato-it-time-europe-get-its-act-together
EEAS. (2024, February 19). Munich Security Conference: Speech by High Representative/Vice-President Josep Borrell on the European Security Architecture. European External Action Service. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/munich-security-conference-speech-high-representativevice-president-josep-borrell-european-security_en
European Commission. (2023, October 27). Commission launches comprehensive consultation process with stakeholders aiming to deliver a European Defence Industrial Strategy. European Commission https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_5364
Moens, B., Weise, Z., & Von der Burchard, H. (2024, February 19). Von der Leyen’s 2nd-term pitch: More military might, less climate talk. POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-military-defense-slimate-second-term/
MSC (2024a, February 17). Europe’s Finest Hour? Building a Defense Union in Challenging Times. Munich Security Conference. https://securityconference.org/en/msc-2024/agenda/event/europes-finest-hour-building-a-defense-union-in-challenging-times/
_____ (2024b, February 17) In It to Win It: The Future of Ukraine and Transatlantic Security. Munich Security Conference. https://securityconference.org/en/msc-2024/agenda/event/in-it-to-win-it-the-future-of-ukraine-and-transatlantic-security/
NATO. (2024, February 18). Secretary General wraps up Munich Security Conference stressing importance of NATO unity, support to Ukraine. North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_222986.htm
Roussi, A., Posaner, J., & Cienski, J. (2024, February 17). Von der Leyen plans new defense commissioner post. POLITICO.https://www.politico.eu/article/von-der-leyen-plans-new-defense-commissioner-post/ Brzozowski, Alexandra. (2024, February 17). EU defence commissioner proposal gains traction. EURACTIV. https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/eu-defence-commissioner-proposal-gains-traction/
