Written by Ginevra Bertamini
Edited by Michele Puggia
Supervised by Paul Dybjer
A military probing attack is defined as an operation whose aim is to test the strengths and weaknesses of an enemy defence line. It is often used interchangeably with the term “reconnaissance-in-force”, but it differs from the latter as it focuses on the development of a complete intelligence picture (CBN, 2023). Possibly, the most recent example of probing attacks at the time of writing (2023, June 26th) is currently being carried out in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. As of now, Ukraine seems to have initiated a much-anticipated counteroffensive, which seems to be concentrated in the Zaporizhian region. Something that has caught many analysts’ interest is the scale of the Ukrainian military force used so far. In fact, it is believed that Ukraine is still holding back a large part of its military assets. Therefore, it has been hypothesised that Ukraine is performing probing attacks, although it is hard to confirm due to the requested operational silence (CBN, 2023). This paper seeks to outline the current Ukrainian counteroffensive strategies and understand the role Western efforts have played and might play in the future.