The 2022 Russia-Ukraine War as a Test of Resolve: Challenges in Deterring Future Russian Aggression

The Russia-Ukraine War (2022) brought an unprecedented degree of unity and scale to the responses to Russia’s invasion among European Union member states and the United States, in a way that was incomparable to their responses to the Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014-2022) crises. A weak resolve – the firmness of those responses and the underpinning willingness to incur costs – in the preceding crises may have fostered an expectation in the Kremlin that Washington and European capitals' responses to future aggression would follow a similar path. Hence, this paper examines the challenges for resolve in responding to the Russia-Ukraine War (2022), in order to discourage future aggression. It finds that, throughout the three crises, concerns over escalatory risks and disunity in responses between European capitals and Washington constitute two persistent challenges. Maintaining unity can become increasingly fraught as the economic and political costs increase, especially in countries that have historically held closer cultural and economic ties with Russia.

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Lines of Sustainment: Evaluating Ukrainian Military Logistics in the Russo-Ukrainian War

This paper aims to examine the critical role of logistics in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, focusing on the evolving challenges and innovations in Ukraine's military logistics infrastructure. Logistical disruptions, especially from Russian missile strikes and precision bombing, threaten Ukraine's operational momentum and the sustainability of its military operations. This piece explores Ukraine's efforts to modernise its logistics systems, drawing from both doctrinal shifts and technological advancements, such as the integration of drones for last-mile delivery and the launch of the DOT Chain digital logistics platform. Despite these innovations, systemic challenges such as bureaucratic delays and limited air defence coverage persist, undermining the effectiveness of Ukraine's logistics network. The paper offers recommendations for enhancing resilience at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels.

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Illusory or substantive? Analysing the European Union’s Support to the International Criminal Court

This paper explores whether the European Union’s support for the International Criminal Court (ICC) is substantive or illusory. By examining legal and policy commitments alongside the case studies of Ukraine and Libya, the research shows that EU support is context-dependent. In Ukraine, where judicial and political interests align, the EU provides tangible, substantive support. In Libya, stability and migration control take precedence, resulting in symbolic engagement and undermined cooperation. The paper argues that this difference stems from differing institutional logics: generally, the ICC pursues principles of justice and fairness, while the EU often prioritises political consequences.

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Operation Spiderweb: under Russia’s nose

On 1 June 2025, Ukraine launched Operation Spiderweb, the most effective drone attack against Russian airfields since the start of the war. A total of 117 drones were used to strike airbases across five regions – Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions –, with the aim of inflicting maximum damage on Russian aircraft far away from the frontier (Al Jazeera, 2025; Horowitz, 2025). Reports suggest that 41 aircrafts – including A-50, Tu-95, Tu-22 M3 and Tu-160 – have been hit in the operation along with a third of Russian bombers that are currently used as cruise-missile carriers (Horowitz, 2025; Security Service of Ukraine, 2025; Zoria, 2025).

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Rethinking European Defence: The European Defence Mechanism Proposal

On 12 April 2025, the European Union (EU) finance ministers, joined by their counterparts from the UK, Norway, and Switzerland, expressed their support for a joint defence fund aimed at collectively purchasing and owning military equipment. The initiative would bring together EU and selected non-EU countries to streamline defence spending and enhance coordination (Strupczewski & Badohal, 2025). This proposal originates from a report by the Bruegel think tank, commissioned by the Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU. Its premise is the urgent need for the EU to achieve strategic autonomy, reversing decades of economic dependencies and fragmented strategic planning. This is deemed essential to effectively respond to contemporary threats, chief among them, a potential attack from Russia (Bortoletto, 2025; Wolff et al., 2025), following the diminishing reliability of the United States as Europe's primary security guarantor.

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