As Tensions Heighten, Ukraine and Poland Seek Closer Defence Ties to the UK  

The ongoing crisis in eastern Ukraine has resulted in Ukraine and Poland seeking closer defence ties to the UK. This desire for closer cooperation has now become codified in a new security pact between the two eastern European countries and the UK, announced on 17 February 2022. According to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, the agreement seeks to deepen ties between the three countries in vital areas of national defence, primarily “in matters of cyber security, energy security and countering disinformation.” Further details of what the security pact entails are expected soon, as the three countries are expected to publish a “yet-to-be-developed memorandum of understanding” in the coming days.

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Nord Stream 2, a Rift in the EU’s Response to Russia?

As tensions continue to build surrounding the possible invasion of Ukraine by the Russian military, one issue has stood out as a potential point of tension: the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. A significant part of the European Union (EU) still depends on imported natural gas as a source of energy. A sizeable part of that comes from the Russian Federation, the primary import of natural gas to the EU, amounting to 40% of imports (Euractiv, 2022). In that context, any tension with Russia has the potential of having serious consequences for the energy supply of the Union. Russia has been known to use this leverage in negotiations in the past, such as when it turned off all supplies to Ukraine in January 2006 over a dispute regarding payments (Parfitt, the Guardian, 2006). At the time, this has pushed the EU member states to realise the danger of depending on Russia for energy, and incited them to pursue other sources, as well as increase storage capacity in case the EU’s supply was ever cut.

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Turkey and Ukraine TB2 drone agreement

NATO member Turkey and its Black Sea ally Ukraine have agreed to coproduce Turkish-made military drones at a production site in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Defence Minister Olesii Reznikov has recently made public the bilateral agreement between Turkey and Ukraine in the military defence industry.

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The Ukraine-Russia Crisis: Current Developments and Prospects for European Security

In recent months tensions between Russia and NATO have reached a critical point as Russia has mobilised more than one hundred thousand troops along Ukraine’s border. Russia wants to coerce NATO to meet its demands by mobilising these troops. One of these demands holds that NATO will not expand further and halt all new membership plans, including Ukraine. In addition, Russia wants NATO to reduce its military presence in countries close to Russia’s borders, essentially returning NATO forces to where they were stationed before 1997 (Roth, 2021). Moscow states they are not planning any invasion. However, they argue that if their security demands are not met, their next step might be a military one (Kirby, 2022). The U.S. government expects that a Russian incursion into Ukraine could lead to the deaths of roughly 50.000 civilians and cause a refugee crisis in Europe (Cooper and Sanger, 2022).

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Moscow’s military build-up over the Russia-Ukraine border: potential scenarios following the new incursion

Russia has raised the alarm in Ukraine and throughout the international community in recent days by massing its armed forces close to the Ukrainian border. The military build-up has raised fears of a possible Russian offensive that could push beyond the areas of eastern Ukraine currently under Kremlin control and lead to a dramatic escalation in the violent seven-year conflict between the two countries.

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