The Evolution of Neutrality in Europe

Neutrality is not a static concept but has evolved significantly, reflecting changes in political, military, and economic contexts over time. This paper argues how neutrality has changed in Switzerland, Sweden, and Finland, particularly in response to the invasion of Ukraine. These European case studies highlight neutrality as a complex, dynamic and multifaceted concept, which has transitioned from a rigid principle to a dynamic and adaptable practice across military and political realms that evolves in response to shifting geopolitical contexts, public opinion and growing alliances. This paper reveals how increased spending, expanding alliances and shifting public opinion have redefined the concept and practice of neutrality in Europe By redefining the territorial boundaries of NATO’s Article 5, which commits members to collective defence measures, new borders with potential adversaries are introduced, creating new vulnerabilities and opportunities for defence.  The paper will begin by giving a brief account of the historical development of neutrality in Europe in the 17th and 18th centuries to contextualised the following discussions. For each case study, the dynamic nature of neutrality will be revealed, with a particular focus on developments following the invasion of Ukraine.

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Nordic joint action: Sweden and Denmark enhance defence cooperation

Pal Jonson, Swedish Defence Minister, and Troels Lund Poulsen, Danish Defence Minister, signed a letter of intent on enhanced defence cooperation on 7 May 2024. The letter of intent is framed in “light of the concerning security situation in Europe and beyond and the need to continue building upon the bilateral Memorandum of Understanding” (Government of Sweden, 2024) the two countries signed in 2016 that guides their cooperation in defence matters. This agreement aligns with broader cooperation frameworks, including the Nordic Defence Cooperation (NORDEFCO), and the countries’ willingness to increase collaborative defence efforts.

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Sweden in NATO: Legal Status and Future Challenges

On 7 March 2024, after decades of close partnership, Sweden finally joined NATO. Its accession followed a strict process involving the approval of all Parties of the Alliance. Before this pivotal moment, Sweden’s application to NATO was engaged in an unstable diplomatic negotiation between former Allies. This paper aims to analyse the legal framework and the future setup of NATO after this substantial transformation.

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Sweden Strengthens Military Ties with France

On 31 January 2024, Sweden and France signed an agreement to deepen their partnership, engage in strategic dialogue on security and defence issues, expand cooperation in the field of research and development and advance their overall defence capabilities (Government of Sweden , 2024b). The cooperation extends to their armament industries and includes the production of essential supplies such as ammunitions, propellants, and explosives, thus rendering the European defence technological and industrial base more innovative, competitive, and resilient (Government of Sweden , 2024b). It is worth mentioning that France-Sweden defence cooperation is well- established, dating back to September 2021, when the two issued a joint declaration of intent concerning intensified defence cooperation in international operations and material provision (Government of Sweden , 2024a). Furthermore, in April 2023, they signed a framework arrangement to develop a common, improved version of a medium-range missile, paving the way for further collaboration in anti-tank missiles (Shepard News Team, 2024).

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Sweden, Türkiye, and NATO: Rational choices leading to a breakdown in negotiations?

Sweden’s NATO application looks as if it is on the cusp of derailing once more after 21 August comments from Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In the context of Sweden’s NATO application, Erdoğan asserted that “Sweden must first of all take care of the streets of Stockholm. If they don’t take care of their streets, if these attacks on the things we hold sacred continue, then they shouldn’t blame us”. This statement follows a summer of Qur’an burnings that have soured Sweden’s relations with most of the Muslim world, Türkiye included, severely increased the risk of terror attacks on Sweden and motivated direct threats by militant Islamist groups. 

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