Refusing a Second “Finlandization”? The Drivers and the Impact of Finland and Sweden’s NATO Membership on the Arctic Region

This Info Flash outlines the European security crisis, which has its roots beyond the unsolved issues with post-Soviet Russia and NATO enlargement towards the East of Europe. The current invasion of Ukraine shows that two opposing international concepts are on the battleground. The goal of this research is to investigate the reasons that led two of the most prominent European neutral nations – Sweden and Finland – to take sides in the current conflict between the two contrasting visions of the international order, joining the Atlantic Alliance. It is elaborated on a historical analysis of Finland and Sweden, which shows the lessons learnt from experiences in order to determine the present-day challenges that both face due to their geopolitical position in the Arctic region. In doing so, this paper aims to understand the past, present and future international arrangements involving the Arctic as the next battlefield where the two contrasting international order visions will collide. 

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Sweden and Finland’s Accession to NATO

The constant escalation of Russia’s war on Ukraine led the Nordic countries to scale up their defence cooperation and preparedness, making Finland and Sweden take the decision to join NATO. On 18 May 2022, both countries handed their official letters of application to join the organization over to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and had their accession protocols signed on 5 July, after the completion of the pertinent accession talks (NATO Parliamentary Assembly, 2022). The protocols must now be ratified by all the Allies in accordance with their national procedures.

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14 NATO Allies, plus Finland, Agree to Develop the European Sky Shield Initiative

In response to the Russian war on Ukraine, neighbouring countries have decided to take concrete steps towards strengthening their air security. On October 13, 2022, fourteen NATO member countries, plus Finland, signed a Letter of Intent initiating the development of a “European Sky Shield Initiative” (NATO, n.d.). The European Sky Shield Initiative creates a joint defence system “through the common acquisition of air defence equipment and missiles by European nations” (NATO, n.d.). Furthermore, the project enhances interoperability between the countries and strengthens NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence (NATO IAMD).

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The New Scandinavian Asset: To What Extent Sweden and Finland NATO’s Membership Will Strengthen The Alliance?

Since the creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in 1949, the Nordic countries or Scandinavian countries remained divided on their willingness to join the Alliance. Whereas Norway, Denmark, and Iceland directly joined NATO, Sweden and Finland chose not to. Nevertheless, although NATO’s security provision and mutual military assistance is apparent, it is less evident what Finland and Sweden would provide to the North Atlantic Alliance and how they would strengthen NATO’s strategic position.

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The Road To Alignment: Prospects Of Finnish and Swedish NATO Memberships

The 18th of May 2022 marked a major moment in the history of Finland and Sweden. After years of commitment to neutrality and non-alignment, both countries handed their official letters of application to join NATO. Their applications were warmly welcomed by most of the Allies, except for Turkey. Even though nothing has been concretised yet, the prospects of such an integration seem as exciting as they seem challenging.

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