Resilience and Rearmament: A Comparative Analysis of Russia’s Defence Industrial Base in 2025

This paper provides a comparative analysis of Russian and European defence industrial capacities in the aftermath of the 2022 Ukraine invasion amid the ongoing retreat of U.S. global security commitments. While Russia has demonstrated short-term resilience through mass production of tanks, artillery, and drones, it remains vulnerable due to technological dependencies and supply chain constraints. In contrast, the European Union, despite structural fragmentation, is mobilising towards strategic autonomy through initiatives like ASAP and EDIS. The study argues that Russia’s high-volume model may face sustainability limits, whereas Europe’s innovation-oriented, collaborative framework could offer long-term strategic depth. The research evaluates production trends, budgetary shifts, and geopolitical implications to assess the trajectory of both blocs in the emerging post-American security order.

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Strategic Autonomy in Action: Europe’s Reassurance Force

On 10 April 2025, NATO hosted the last of a series of meetings of the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ (Gray & Van Overstraeten, 2025). The initiative, spearheaded by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and supported by French President Emmanuel Macron, was first introduced at the London Summit on Ukraine in March (Davies, 2025). Bringing together defence ministers from 30 nations, including Canada and Australia but excluding the United States (US), the coalition aims to establish a ‘reassurance force’ for Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire with Russia (Melkozerova, 2025). The group seeks a credible and lasting European-made peace, reducing the chances of a future invasion from Russia even without US security guarantees promised to the war-torn country. In the words of the British Defence Secretary, the aim is to “put Ukraine in the strongest possible position, to protect its sovereignty and deter further Russian aggression” (Gray & Van Overstraeten, 2025). The urgency of the project has grown amid declining U.S. support under the Trump administration, which has pushed Europe to assume greater responsibility for its own security as Washington pivots its strategic focus toward the Pacific.

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Greece’s Military Modernisation Process: Is the EU Ready to Follow?

On 2 April 2025, during a session in Parliament, the Greek government announced the largest military spending plan in its history: €25 billion over the next twelve years (Stamouli, 2025). This decision comes after years of budget cuts following the 2009-2018 financial crisis. The investment, which amounts to around three-and-a-half percent of Greece’s GDP, largely exceeds NATO’s two percent defence spending requirement and reflects the broader European shift in increased spending. Following Donald Trump’s re-election, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has repeatedly stressed the importance of meeting the two percent spending threshold to maintain effective deterrence (Cook, 2024).

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Episode 7: The Role of Space in European Security and Defence

In this episode of StrategicALLY, hosts Doğa Sultan Önaçan and Manuel Dias are joined by Colonel Marcin Mazur from the Polish Space Agency (POLSA) to explore the evolving role of space in European security. We discuss space warfare, dual-use technologies, and the EU's path to strategic autonomy in space. Colonel Mazur shares valuable insights on the challenges Europe faces in protecting space assets and advancing space capabilities. Topics covered include the weaponization of orbital debris, the development of military space vehicle technology, and the EU's efforts in achieving autonomous space access. Tune in as we discuss how Europe is positioning itself to secure the future of its space domain. Podcast edited by Livia Perrulli.

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Generative AI and Foreign Electoral Interference: How Information Warfare Threatens Democracies

This article explores how foreign actors use generative AI and disinformation to manipulate democratic processes and public trust. Drawing on concepts such as digital geopolitics, information warfare, and disinformation, this paper analyses recent examples of electoral interference in the United States and the European Union. The study reveals how digital technologies and social media algorithms amplify polarisation and facilitate the exercise of malign foreign influence. Finally, it highlights forward-looking recommendations for EU resilience, highlighting the urgent need for action to preserve the integrity of its democratic institutions.

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