Europe Adrift: The Incoming Trump Presidency and the EU’s Strategic Void in Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has exposed the critical state of the European Union’s defence and security strategies. At the same time, the EU’s Strategic Compass outlined a vision for greater defence integration, long-standing divides among member states persist, hindering coherent action. The initial unified response to Russia’s aggression has faded into a strategic divergence, with contrasting national priorities. The prospect of a Trump administration in 2025 exacerbates Europe’s security vulnerabilities, as Ukraine remains heavily dependent on US military aid. The failure to prepare for a US withdrawal leaves the EU strategically paralysed, risking both Kyiv’s sovereignty and Europe’s future security. This study explores the consequences of this strategic void and underlines the importance for the EU to develop a unified defence strategy.

0 Comments

The EU’s Approach towards Countering Hybrid Threats: Conceptualization and Capacity Building

In this paper, Marek Gallo examines the European Union’s approach to hybrid warfare, particularly following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. It begins by defining hybrid warfare, exploring its historical context and contemporary implications for security. The analysis highlights the EU’s strategies, including the creation of institutions like the Hybrid Fusion Cell, and assesses their effectiveness. While recognising the dual role of the EU in utilising soft power alongside NATO's hard power, the paper also addresses the challenges posed by geopolitical ambiguities and the necessity of building trust among member states. Furthermore, it emphasises the importance of enhancing the EU's capabilities, as articulated in the Strategic Compass of 2022, and proposes recommendations for strengthening resilience against hybrid threats. The conclusion calls for a proactive stance in upholding international law and engaging civil society, reinforcing the EU's position as a key player in addressing hybrid warfare in a complex security environment.

Comments Off on The EU’s Approach towards Countering Hybrid Threats: Conceptualization and Capacity Building

Ukraine Aid and European Defence Procurement: Insights from the Prague 2024 GLOBSEC Conference

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is nearing its third year, yet how to support the war-torn country remains one of the most discussed issues in security and defence circles. At the 2024 GLOBSEC Conference in Prague, discussions centred on what Ukraine’s current battlefield needs are, what the role of the EU in meeting them is, and what lessons the Union can learn from Ukraine’s experience. This paper will dedicate a section to all 3 of these aspects, providing detailed information about European actions in support of Ukraine and the future of European procurement.

Comments Off on Ukraine Aid and European Defence Procurement: Insights from the Prague 2024 GLOBSEC Conference

Intelligence Sharing in the EU: Legal Implications and the Role of the European Union Military Staff

The term intelligence refers to the process of collecting, analysing, evaluating, and presenting information to decision-makers to prevent tactical or strategic disruptions (Şeniz, 2015). Specifically, military intelligence is a component of intelligence with its own rules, procedures and intelligence tools. It refers to military threats, armed violence and military operations involving States and non-state actors in traditional armed conflicts as well as in asymmetric warfare. Intelligence has long been part of tactical and operational command and control in order to reduce the uncertainties of the battlefield, which Carl von Clausewitz referred to as the “fog of war”, and to assist military decision-makers in making effective decisions. Intelligence was initially conceived to provide information and analysis to assist the commander in making more effective decisions during conflicts (Rolington, 2013). Nowadays, military intelligence aims to study potential or actual adversaries and identify the risks or dangers in operational areas. Primarily, it aims to support the chain of command at strategic, operational and tactical levels, involving both political institutions and military staff. Military intelligence in the EU is linked to the Common Defence and Security Policy (CSDP) and reflects the ideological construction of the EU’s identity and international action (Gruszczak, 2023).

Comments Off on Intelligence Sharing in the EU: Legal Implications and the Role of the European Union Military Staff

The Future of European Deterrence: a Three-Pillar Approach for Advancing Capability Development and Interoperability

On 24 February 2022, when Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Europe experienced an apparent fog-clearing moment. (Besch & Quencez, 2022). For several years, the European Security debate followed a caricatured binary opposition between the US-led transatlantic security and the need for EU autonomy as a geopolitical power, partly motivated by the notion of an imminent US retreat from Europe (Tocci, 2021). Now, while the war (temporarily) restored general confidence in American commitment to European security, it also revealed how dependent European states are on the US for their defence (Puglierin, 2024). As a result, after more than two years of conflict, the subjects of the binary intellectual confrontation have emerged with more defined roles: NATO has reaffirmed its prerogative in conventional deterrence, while the EU has given proof of its crisis management abilities, primarily through financial tools (Weber, 2023). Accepting the transatlantic partnership as the sole and definitive European deterrence strategy is imprudent and short-sighted. The US’ shifting priorities and waning leadership require Europe to decide on a path forward to more strategic responsibility. Among the priorities, an increased commitment to NATO is imperative – especially with a Republican in the White House. At the same time, efforts must be made to reconsider the US national commitment and investments in European deterrence, as well as the role of the EU and its initiatives.

Comments Off on The Future of European Deterrence: a Three-Pillar Approach for Advancing Capability Development and Interoperability