Read more about the article Rwanda’s Campaign in Mozambique as a Counterinsurgency Case Study: A Radical Approach?
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Rwanda’s Campaign in Mozambique as a Counterinsurgency Case Study: A Radical Approach?

Rwanda’s campaign against the Islamic State in Mozambique since 2021 has attracted widespread praise from the international community. Characterised by civilian protection, its approach saw widespread success in pushing back jihadists in Mozambique. This was argued by some to act as a blueprint for future counterinsurgency campaigns, in stark contrast to recent Western efforts (ADF, 2023) and raises the question of whether Rwanda has adopted a radically different approach to counterinsurgency. This paper will examine the operations of the Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF) in northern Mozambique as a case study of an effective counterinsurgency campaign. It will begin by overviewing Rwandan operations in Mozambique, before examining how their approach aligns with counterinsurgency theory and recent Western examples. Finally, it explores the RDF’s the longer-term chances of success as a further test of theory and as another point of comparison with Western operations.

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23 June 2025
Read more about the article Illusory or substantive? Analysing the European Union’s Support to the International Criminal Court
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Illusory or substantive? Analysing the European Union’s Support to the International Criminal Court

This paper explores whether the European Union’s support for the International Criminal Court (ICC) is substantive or illusory. By examining legal and policy commitments alongside the case studies of Ukraine and Libya, the research shows that EU support is context-dependent. In Ukraine, where judicial and political interests align, the EU provides tangible, substantive support. In Libya, stability and migration control take precedence, resulting in symbolic engagement and undermined cooperation. The paper argues that this difference stems from differing institutional logics: generally, the ICC pursues principles of justice and fairness, while the EU often prioritises political consequences.

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19 June 2025
Read more about the article Toward Hybrid Deterrence: Conceptual Foundations and the Evolution of NATO Response
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Toward Hybrid Deterrence: Conceptual Foundations and the Evolution of NATO Response

Hybrid threats, leveraging ambiguity and asymmetry, increasingly challenge NATO’s deterrence and credibility. This paper critically examines NATO’s doctrinal evolution and responses to hybrid threats since first acknowledging cyber challenges in 2002. Despite doctrinal progress and tools like Counter-Hybrid Support Teams (CHSTs) and initiatives such as Baltic Sentry, NATO’s response remains largely reactive and fragmented, activated only post-crisis rather than proactively deterring threats. Ambiguous attribution and contested thresholds further hinder collective action. The analysis highlights persistent strategic gaps and concludes by asserting that credible hybrid deterrence cannot be improvised post hoc but must be embedded systematically into NATO’s doctrine and operational architecture, a concept that will be further developed in a forthcoming companion article.

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18 June 2025
Read more about the article Europe’s southern border in Lampedusa: migration, crisis and the responsibility of the European Union
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Europe’s southern border in Lampedusa: migration, crisis and the responsibility of the European Union

This paper explores the European Union’s response to irregular migration across the Central Mediterranean, with a specific focus on the Italian island of Lampedusa as a key entry point. It examines how the EU balances border security, migration control, and humanitarian obligations within the broader framework of international humanitarian law, refugee law, and the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights. Through an analysis of EU actions including border operations, partnerships with third countries, and emergency response mechanisms, the paper investigates whether current policies genuinely protect the rights and dignity of migrants or whether they reflect a securitised and externalised approach to crisis management. Lampedusa serves as an example for understanding the broader tensions and contradictions in EU migration governance.

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16 June 2025
Read more about the article Renegotiating Alliances: Trump’s America’s first foreign policy and the European Union’s quest for strategic autonomy
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Renegotiating Alliances: Trump’s America’s first foreign policy and the European Union’s quest for strategic autonomy

In light of Donald Trump’s second administration and its transactional America-first foreign policy, this paper considers the implications for European strategic autonomy amid the heightened importance of US security commitments and defence capabilities. Trump’s foreign policy is driven by the belief that Europeans have taken advantage of the US within the NATO alliance and international trade, and seeks to renegotiate trade agreements, returning manufacturing to the US and shifting its strategic orientation towards Asia. In the short term, this can constrain Europe’s strategic autonomy, as European capitals are pressured to accommodate the America-first agenda to ensure the US retains vital military capabilities in Europe and continues to provide military support to Ukraine. However, in the long term, the Trump administration’s pressure on allies to spend more on defence and a degree of ambiguity over security commitments reinforces the need for European strategic autonomy and accelerates the development of capacities that enable Europe to pursue its interests more independently.

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11 June 2025