Russia Has Formally Withdrawn from the CFE Treaty: What Now?

The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) has been one of the cornerstones of European security for the last thirty years. Negotiated during the twilight years of the Cold War, and signed on 19 November 1990, it was a landmark security treaty. The CFE entered into force on 13 July 1992 and aimed to limit the number of conventional arms—battle tanks, armoured combat vehicles, artillery, combat aircraft and attack helicopters—of State Parties (Art 4(1) CFE, 1990). The Treaty was particularly important as it addressed the core dilemmas of the security context of the time; although the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, the context was very much dominated by bloc tensions between the Warsaw Pact states and NATO (Witkowsky et al., 2010). At the time it entered into force, it “adapted to the changes that followed the fall of the Berlin Wall and contributed predictability and transparency in military forces as Europe was transforming throughout the 1990s” (Witkowsky et al., 2010).

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Joint naval and aerial exercises in the Indo-Pacific and new regional alignments in 2023.

On October 22, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States (US) navies completed the anti-submarine exercise called ‘Silent Shark’ in the waters of Guam. Since 2007, Silent Shark has been conducted biennially. The live-training exercise involved the nuclear-powered fast attack submarine USS Topeka (SSN-754) and the diesel-electric submarine ROKS Jung Ji (SS-073), along with maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft from the US Navy’s Squadron 8 and the ROK’s Navy Squadron 611.

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An Opportunity for Europe to Expand Joint Defence Funding

The European Defence Fund (EDF) was launched in 2017 as an aspect of the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) to increase coordination and investment in defence research and development (R&D) and improve interoperability between European national armed forces. Domestic demand for defence technologies in Europe has fallen sharply in recent decades, which has led to smaller investments in R&D, increased dependence on civilian sectors, and stagnation of military-industrial skills. Small and medium-sized enterprises, especially those from smaller European states, struggle to compete with larger corporations from bigger economies. Furthermore, European military spending has become mired with inefficiencies and duplications. After an initial pilot period, the EDF has been allotted €8 billion for R&D. And while this is a start, the EDF requires a serious expansion for the current and future European capability needs. There are significant hurdles that Europe faces, some of which remain outside the scope of the EDF, such as the lack of an open European defence equipment market. These issues cannot be ignored when conventional warfare has returned to Europe.

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Italy’s New Defence Plan: Nuclear Readiness Exercises, New German Tanks and Billions in Expenditures

The commitment of Prime Minister Meloni to military spending became tangible after the Defence Ministry released, with an unusual delay of six months, its budget projections for 2023-2025. Integrated expenditures for defence are set to reach an all-time high of €31.4 billion in 2025, a €2 billion increase from 2022. Italian expenses for procurement are expected to rise by 43% in the next two years, with €4.6 billion allocated to thirteen new military programmes.

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Towards the Implementation of the European Defence Industry Reinforcement Through Common Procurement Act (EDIRPA)

On October 9, the Council of the EU adopted a regulation establishing an instrument that further paves the way for the entry into force of the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act (EDIRPA). This new instrument involves a €300 million budget that provides partial reimbursement to Member States jointly purchasing capabilities through consortia of at least three Members. Further conditions are set out for EDIRPA. Contractors and subcontractors must be established and must have their executive management structure in the EU or in an associated country. Moreover, at least 65 percent of the end products’ components must originate from the EU or an associated country.

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