Ukrainian Neptune Cruise Missiles and Sea Drones – How a Country without a Real Naval Fleet is Changing the Balance of Power in the Black Sea and the Future of Naval WarfareFrom Theory to Practice: Understanding Nuclear Deterrence and Sharing Agreements in European Security

When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his open war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, most observers expected the Ukrainians to hold out for a few days in the face of a superior armed force. After two years of war, the situation on the ground remains ambiguous for Ukraine. However, in the Black Sea, Ukraine has been able to notch several successful naval strikes. The Russian Navy having lost several critical vessels, has had to withdraw from the Black Sea Fleet's headquarters in Sevastopol in Crimea and relocate several ships to Russian harbours. Additionally, it is increasingly failing in its efforts to enforce a grain embargo against Ukraine by sea. Newly developed naval drones and anti-ship missiles are likely key factors contributing to Ukraine’s successes. This Infoflash aims to analyse these new weapons systems and their impact on the Russo-Ukrainian War, the balance of power in the Black Sea and their implications for the future of maritime warfare.

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The Strategic Value of the Black Sea

The Black Sea is a strategic trade and transportation artery which connects Europe and Asia (NSC, 2022). The countries surrounding the coasts of the Black Sea are EU and NATO members (Romania and Bulgaria), former members of the Soviet Union (Russia, Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia) and Middle Eastern powers (Turkey). After the Cold War, the lack of agreement between Russia and the West on the power-sharing in the region and the disintegration of the Soviet Union caused a series of conflicts, which are still ongoing. Recently, Russia and Ukraine have built up their military power in the region, and NATO has stationed additional forces in Romania to enhance the Alliance's defence strategy (Miller, 2017). The Black Sea is, therefore more militarised and less stable than at any point since the end of the Cold War. Tensions and instability in this key region can seriously affect global commercial trade and maritime activities.

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European Perspective on the Black Sea Security

For centuries the Black Sea has been an important body of water for the region, from access to the Mediterranean Sea to fisheries. Today, for the region’s countries and surrounding areas, the Black Sea represents a major strategic asset. Countries and regions rely on the pipelines and fibre optic cables laid on the seabed. The straits and the right of passage represent a major issue not only for military reasons but also mostly for daily trade amongst nations.

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