Navigating Uncharted Waters: Russia’s Potential Exit from the Convention on the Law of the Sea

In the light of Russia’s recent comments regarding their possible withdrawal from the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the international community must re-think the integrity of the current maritime order, assess the present challenges and examine different perspectives for the governance of the seas. Following decades of negotiations, in 1982, the United Nations adopted UNCLOS, the Convention that sets the modern standards and encapsulates the principles of international maritime law. As one of the most widely ratified international treaties, UNCLOS has enjoyed decades of being unchallenged, yet the current unsteady political landscape — with big countries such as China and Russia claiming to be unsatisfied with the Convention — puts UNCLOS in a precarious position regarding compliance and observance of international maritime norms. After a brief overview of the Convention and the evolution of Russia as a member of UNCLOS, the paper will analyse the relevant legal framework of the Law of Sea, focusing on Russia’s bid for the Arctic and its process with the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS). Finally, the paper will examine Russia’s latest threat to withdraw from the Convention, addressing legal and geopolitical implications, including how rather than following a different ‘maritime strategy’, these threats might reflect a strategic narrative aimed at promoting a multipolar world order.

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The Role of the EU in Arctic Security

Arguably, the Arctic region has always been an area of interest to the world’s countries. Despite its location and harsh arctic climate, the region opens opportunities for exploring new territories, trading routes, rich natural resources, and raw materials. According to the research on Arctic warming, by 2040, the melted ice in some parts of the Arctic will provide a new prospect for commercial shipping, shortening the transit time between Europe, the United States and Asia (Rantanen et al., 2022). Nevertheless, these changes open not only new opportunities for economic development but also threaten the global environment. As a result, the Arctic becomes a playground of conflict of interests of many international actors, creating new challenges to the region’s stability and security. In addition, due to its strategic importance, the region has begun to attract the attention of various actors. Since 2008, the EU has actively shown interest in Arctic issues, trying to strengthen its influence on Arctic affairs and emphasising the importance of its participation in solving the problems of the region to ensure its stability and development. Today’s interests of the EU in the Arctic region include the region’s sustainable development, security concerns, and climate change issues (The EU in the Arctic, 2024).

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine on the Arctic

The desire to access the Arctic's vast mineral reserves has always been a major driver of international attention towards the region. The Arctic is believed to contain 1,699 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and various other fuels, equal to the entirety of Russia’s oil reserves and three times those of the US (U.S Geological Survey, 2008). On top of this, by 2050, it is believed that the region above the Polar Circle may be completely ice-free, considering the rate at which the ice sheet is shrinking and the multiplier effect of warming seas and surface temperatures (La Rocca, 2022). This potential development could further increase the international race for Arctic raw materials.

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The Arctic: Climate Change as a Driver for a Geopolitical Shift

The issue of climate change is renowned for its global implications, not only on the environment but also on humans. Nevertheless, one of the shifts least touched upon is how the melting of the Arctic ice is changing the geopolitical theatre. All the major international actors are aware of this and have already developed policies to exploit or adapt to this shift. In this context, we witness bids from countries’ representatives and military exercises in the region.

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Read more about the article Nuclearisation and Militarisation Saga: Russia is Testing a Nuclear Torpedo in the Arctic
Google Earth 2021

Nuclearisation and Militarisation Saga: Russia is Testing a Nuclear Torpedo in the Arctic

Russia is displaying an unprecedented military might in the Arctic region by testing its newest nuclear torpedo in a region currently freed from ice due to climate change. This is part of a chain of actions to secure its northern coast as the Arctic terrain is becoming a key issue for security, especially for Russia and the United States.

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