Deciphering the Novelty Franco-German Security Deal with Ukraine

Last Friday, February 16th 2024 saw the establishment of a milestone in Franco-Ukrainian relations in the form of the ratification of a bilateral security and relief agreement at the Élysée Palace in Paris.  French President Emmanuel Macron signed an accord with President Zelensky, promising large-scale funding, the delivery of offensive weaponry and the exchange of intelligence, while also discussing the production of electronic defence and drone systems (Ratz et al., 2024). This happened only a few hours after Zelensky signed a quasi-identical deal with German chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, as the Ukrainian leader had done in January with Great Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (Fornusek, 2024). Thus, in a show of a slowly nascent, but steadily emerging European defence cooperation effort, the Franco-German couple pledged complementary financial relief, the delivery of heavy armament and offensive weaponry, additionally paving the way for the exchange and mutual consultation of military intelligence.

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The Potential Rise of Russia’s Nuclear Space Arsenal

As the rhetoric of Russian officials continues to fueltensionsby fostering verbal escalations,the last weeks have seenan increased fear of themilitarisation of spaceby the Kremlin,against the backdrop of European military leaders’ general doubts about the West’s readiness to assist and supply Kyiv sustainably in its continued defence efforts.On 17 February 2024, at the Munich Security Conference, Secretary of State Antony Blinken voiced his concerns regardingalleged Russianplans to install satellite-disrupting technology as well as unconventional weaponry in outer space (New York Times, 2014). Such claims, if proven to be true, would constitute a clear breach of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty of the non-militarisation of outer space and potentially harm the worldwide transmission of data to global positioning systems (GPS) (Starling and Massa, 2024).This would,in turn, constitute a novel transgression ofinternational lawwhich,inthe absence of deterring sanctioning tools, would likely once again result ina loss of credibility for the international system (The Conversation, 2024b).Until then, the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty had established a common framework for the prohibition of nuclear testing and stationing of unconventional missiles in space (The Conversation, 2024a).The Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies reported that Russia allegedly went ahead with testing anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons as far back as 2021 against formerly operable Soviet space satellites, while simultaneously planning and carrying out routine exercises of cyber- and jamming attacks against neighbouring spatial equipment (BBC, 2024).

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The U.S. is Discontinuing FARA to Invest More in Reconnaissance UAVs. Europe was Already Ahead.

The war in Ukraine is teaching us the importance of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in reconnaissance because they are cheaper to produce and run than conventional military aircraft. UAVs have played a significant role in Ukrainian intel gathering. This signal has been picked up by the military industry in the United States and changes have been made accordingly. On the other side of the Atlantic, Europe already made the same move in 2019.

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EU Space Strategy for Security and Defence

In recent years, the EU Space Strategy for Security and Defence has assumed paramount importance, driven by shifts in the geopolitical landscape and the imperative to update collective policy approaches. In this context, the enlargement of NATO and the ramifications of the Russo-Ukrainian war pose significant questions (Kolovos, A., 2023). More specifically, these geopolitical shifts underscore the urgent need for a unified defence system against potential common threats. This is an especially complicated task considering that the space domain presents nuanced challenges akin to those of the Arctic, where borders lack the tangible delineation seen in traditional realms of air, land, or maritime boundaries. In this sense, the new approach to space defence and security includes both military considerations and political and legal dimensions.

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Unpacking the 2024 Munich Security Conference: The future of Europe’s Defence and Transatlantic Security Policy

This year marks the 60th anniversary of the Munich Security Conference (MSC). From February 16 to February 18, one of the central forums for debate on foreign and security policy took place in the Bavarian capital. The conference was marked by a palpable sense of urgency and concern regarding European defence. It was largely overshadowed by the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the fall of Avdiivka, the death/murder of Alexei Navalny, ammunition shortages in Ukraine, and former U.S. president and current Republican frontrunner Donald Trump’s comments on NATO (Dorman, 2024), all of which contributed to an uneasy atmosphere. This News Flash dissects the key topics and most significant issues and challenges in European defence and Transatlantic security policy covered throughout the conference. The present analysis explores the two following panel discussions as primary sources: (i) Europe’s Finest Hour? Building a Defense Union in Challenging Times (MSC, 2024a)and (ii) In It to Win It: The Future of Ukraine and Transatlantic Security (MSC, 2024b).

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