Unpacking the 2024 Munich Security Conference: The future of Europe’s Defence and Transatlantic Security Policy

This year marks the 60th anniversary of the Munich Security Conference (MSC). From February 16 to February 18, one of the central forums for debate on foreign and security policy took place in the Bavarian capital. The conference was marked by a palpable sense of urgency and concern regarding European defence. It was largely overshadowed by the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the fall of Avdiivka, the death/murder of Alexei Navalny, ammunition shortages in Ukraine, and former U.S. president and current Republican frontrunner Donald Trump’s comments on NATO (Dorman, 2024), all of which contributed to an uneasy atmosphere. This News Flash dissects the key topics and most significant issues and challenges in European defence and Transatlantic security policy covered throughout the conference. The present analysis explores the two following panel discussions as primary sources: (i) Europe’s Finest Hour? Building a Defense Union in Challenging Times (MSC, 2024a)and (ii) In It to Win It: The Future of Ukraine and Transatlantic Security (MSC, 2024b).

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The 2023 Capability Development Priorities

On November 14, the 27 EU Ministers of Defence approved the 2023 EU Capability Development Priorities (EDA, 2023). This constitutes the fourth revision of the Capability Development Plan (CDP). Earlier versions were drafted in 2008, 2014 and 2018 (Defence Talk, 2008; EDA, 2014, 2018). The CDP is a tool to periodically assess Member States’ military capabilities and inform them on priorities and opportunities for cooperation in capability development (EDA, n.d.).

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Russia Has Formally Withdrawn from the CFE Treaty: What Now?

The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) has been one of the cornerstones of European security for the last thirty years. Negotiated during the twilight years of the Cold War, and signed on 19 November 1990, it was a landmark security treaty. The CFE entered into force on 13 July 1992 and aimed to limit the number of conventional arms—battle tanks, armoured combat vehicles, artillery, combat aircraft and attack helicopters—of State Parties (Art 4(1) CFE, 1990). The Treaty was particularly important as it addressed the core dilemmas of the security context of the time; although the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, the context was very much dominated by bloc tensions between the Warsaw Pact states and NATO (Witkowsky et al., 2010). At the time it entered into force, it “adapted to the changes that followed the fall of the Berlin Wall and contributed predictability and transparency in military forces as Europe was transforming throughout the 1990s” (Witkowsky et al., 2010).

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Joint naval and aerial exercises in the Indo-Pacific and new regional alignments in 2023.

On October 22, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States (US) navies completed the anti-submarine exercise called ‘Silent Shark’ in the waters of Guam. Since 2007, Silent Shark has been conducted biennially. The live-training exercise involved the nuclear-powered fast attack submarine USS Topeka (SSN-754) and the diesel-electric submarine ROKS Jung Ji (SS-073), along with maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft from the US Navy’s Squadron 8 and the ROK’s Navy Squadron 611.

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Italy’s New Defence Plan: Nuclear Readiness Exercises, New German Tanks and Billions in Expenditures

The commitment of Prime Minister Meloni to military spending became tangible after the Defence Ministry released, with an unusual delay of six months, its budget projections for 2023-2025. Integrated expenditures for defence are set to reach an all-time high of €31.4 billion in 2025, a €2 billion increase from 2022. Italian expenses for procurement are expected to rise by 43% in the next two years, with €4.6 billion allocated to thirteen new military programmes.

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