Europe Adrift: The Incoming Trump Presidency and the EU’s Strategic Void in Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has exposed the critical state of the European Union’s defence and security strategies. At the same time, the EU’s Strategic Compass outlined a vision for greater defence integration, long-standing divides among member states persist, hindering coherent action. The initial unified response to Russia’s aggression has faded into a strategic divergence, with contrasting national priorities. The prospect of a Trump administration in 2025 exacerbates Europe’s security vulnerabilities, as Ukraine remains heavily dependent on US military aid. The failure to prepare for a US withdrawal leaves the EU strategically paralysed, risking both Kyiv’s sovereignty and Europe’s future security. This study explores the consequences of this strategic void and underlines the importance for the EU to develop a unified defence strategy.

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Analysing the Strategic Implications of Russia’s “Oreshnik” Missile: The Next Stage of Russia’s Missile Strategy

From conventional missiles to more experimental hypersonic platforms, Russia is redefining missile warfare. On November 21st, Russia launched the Oreshnik missile in Ukraine, marking the first-ever use of a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile that can also carry a nuclear warhead. These advanced systems—capable of evading air defences and delivering precision strikes—are being tested extensively in Ukraine. They are not just battlefield tools; they are strategic signals to NATO and Europe about Russia’s evolving military might and a form of geopolitical blackmailing. The lack of adequate air defences to deter hypersonic missiles creates a new security dilemma for Europe. This Info Flash analyses the greater implications of Oreshnik in Russian missile strategy and, more importantly, what it means for Ukraine and its allies in the long-term.

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The Role of International Humanitarian Law in Human Rights Bodies: A Focus on the European Court of Human Rights

In the absence of a judicial body that would specifically deal with International Humanitarian Law (IHL), the role of its interpretation and enforcement often falls on human rights bodies, like the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR). This article will begin by recalling the theories developed by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). An analysis will then be conducted on the interplay between human rights and international humanitarian law within the European Court of Human Rights Jurisprudence. The Court’s judgments in the Al-Jedda and Hassan cases will be examined to understand how ECtHR interprets the relationship between human rights and IHL and, subsequently how this affects the protection granted to individuals by the European Convention on Human Rights.

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The Quest for a Common Strategic Culture in the EU: Challenges for the Development of a Coherent Political Autonomy

This paper explores the challenges of the European Union (EU) in developing a common strategic culture and, consequently, a coherent political autonomy on the international stage. By examining the evolution of the Union’s security narratives and the challenges these pose to its political autonomy, particularly in light of the war in Ukraine, the paper highlights that certain institutional mechanisms of intergovernmental nature and the discordance between the strategic interests of member states hinder the development of a collective European position. These challenges widen the capability-expectation gap of the EU and affect military coordination. In this regard, the lack of a common strategic culture also has an impact on the interoperability of military capabilities, as the varied priorities and defence strategies of member states complicate efforts to harmonise doctrines across the EU.

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The Role of AI Decision-Making for Land-Based Operations

In an era of technological ‘Oppenheimer momentum,’ Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as the new frontier in military decision-making, presenting enormous promises and challenges. This paper investigates the transformational impact of AI in the context of European land-based military operations, focussing on how AI may speed up decision-making, improve interoperability, and reshape traditional command and control (C2) structures. AI’s unprecedented capacity to interpret large data sets in real time can improve battlefield responsiveness and operational efficiency, acting as a force multiplier in multi-domain operations. In the current context of global military competition, AI’s dual-purpose nature—its applicability in both civilian and military contexts—presents European ground forces with a competitive advantage, notably in sensor-to-shooter systems, predictive analysis, and autonomous decision-making. In addition to these improvements, this paper discusses the ethical, legal, and security problems connected with AI use for such purposes. As autonomous systems perform more complicated jobs, worries about accountability, transparency, and potential overreliance on opaque AI algorithms pose critical considerations about the future of combat and global security. The present study not only emphasises AI’s capacity to transform contemporary military decision- making mechanisms but also advocates for a strong governance structure that provides human supervision, ethical purity, and the preservation of international security standards in the context of unmanned conflict. On the one hand, PMCs participate in combats, from troops through training or instruction programmes, having a strong impact on the development of conflicts. On the other hand, PSCs dedicate themselves to tasks related to security and guard duties like protection of facilities or personnel in at- risk zones. While they both provide services to governments, PMCs are employed in training military forces and taking part in conflict zones, and PSCs are used primarily for non-combat missions such as personnel protection abroad and site security. However, by the nature of their work, both PMCs and PSCs may be engaged in violent scenarios. Therefore, it is also generally accepted to refer to them as Private Military and Security companies (PMSCs). The employment of additional resources to the national armies is a phenomenon which requires a comprehensive regulation on a national and international level. It is necessary, however, to draw a line between PMCs and PSCs, even if the lack of regulation and the similarity of tasks unite them. If the classification of PMSCs personnel in concrete category under the Geneva Conventions seems complex, the distinction between soldiers and civilians nevertheless still has to be made to understand what they can and cannot do in conflicts, eventually having an incidence on the rules of engagement they have to follow and the protection they could be granted or not. This paper will present their blurred status in law and their duties in missions led by European Member States, taking a look at the existing legislation and tools to hold them responsible for their actions. Analysing the relevant dispositions of International Law, this paper will try to clarify the risks and potential downfalls of employing such companies for domains normally part of State responsibilities solely. Furthermore, this paper will analyse the complex and fragmented legal framework governing these companies and their employment both on a European and national level, delving into the distinction of competencies between the EU and the national sovereignty of Member States, according to their own regulation on the matter. This will also be done through practical studies of the use of PMSCs in the Balkans region in the 1990s and in the Afghan conflict in the 21st century. Moreover, the paper will tackle the urgent necessity to strengthen the rules and norms that limit the actions of PMSCs to make sure that human rights and ethical boundaries are respected while they pursue their contracts.

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