The Ukraine-Russia Crisis: Current Developments and Prospects for European Security

In recent months tensions between Russia and NATO have reached a critical point as Russia has mobilised more than one hundred thousand troops along Ukraine’s border. Russia wants to coerce NATO to meet its demands by mobilising these troops. One of these demands holds that NATO will not expand further and halt all new membership plans, including Ukraine. In addition, Russia wants NATO to reduce its military presence in countries close to Russia’s borders, essentially returning NATO forces to where they were stationed before 1997 (Roth, 2021). Moscow states they are not planning any invasion. However, they argue that if their security demands are not met, their next step might be a military one (Kirby, 2022). The U.S. government expects that a Russian incursion into Ukraine could lead to the deaths of roughly 50.000 civilians and cause a refugee crisis in Europe (Cooper and Sanger, 2022).

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Land Force Modernisation in the Baltic Region

Recent developments in the three Baltic states point towards a large-scale effort to modernise their respective land forces. This modernisation drive encompasses purchasing new weapons systems and updating existing weaponry. Estonia, for instance, has allotted up to €40 million to acquire additional ground force vehicles, such as the Republic of Korea made K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzer, of which it expects the delivery of six by next year.

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Ukraine Seeking Tighter Collaboration on Cyber Defence with NATO

After last year’s denial of the formal membership to the North Atlantic Alliance’s (NATO) cooperative cyber centre of excellence (CCDOE), the Ukrainian government officials announced that they still want a closer collaboration.

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US F-16s in Poland strengthening NATO air policing mission

U.S. F-16 fighter jets landed – from Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany – in Łask, Poland on January 4 to work with the Polish Baltic Air Policing F-16s in Siauliai, Lithuania and enhanced Air Policing Belgian F-16s in Amari, Estonia.

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What to expect: a quick overview of the (possible) challenges of 2022

It is very challenging - if not impossible - to predict what exactly is going to happen in the next twelve months. At the present, Nostradamus is not listed among the authors of Finabel. However, it is possible to outline some of the main themes of discussion and to point out some possible trends. It is important to stress that the quite normally some of the main themes that will be delineated in this article will be overtaken and made superfluous by unpredictable events. Nonetheless, here at Finabel we believe that these might be some interesting topics, which stimulates discussions and debates regarding possible implications that fall well beyond 2022.

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