On Tuesday morning, a massive dam on the Dnipro River separating the Ukrainian and Russian forces in the south of Ukraine was breached. The dam is part of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant and holds 18 cubic kilometres of water (Faulconbridge, 2023). Thousands of civilians are likely to be affected and people have been evacuated on both sides of the river (Yoon & Opam, 2023). Ukrainian officials estimated that over 40,000 people are at risk from flooding (Yoon & Opam, 2023). The first deaths resulting from the floods have already been reported, and Ukrainian President Zelensky has appealed for international assistance (The Guardian, 2023).

The incident happened right before the widely anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive and could have major consequences for their prospective military operations (Gavin et al., 2023). Indeed, not only does it become more difficult for Ukraine to get troops across the river, but Ukrainian forces will probably not be able to use heavy weaponry, such as tanks, for at least a month due to the flood tide (Williams et al., 2023). The dam breach puts the Russian troops in a much better defending position than before (Williams et al., 2023).

On the other hand, the dam’s collapse also has consequences for the Russians. The dam was an important channel for carrying water from the Dnipro River to the Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula, and its collapse will therefore cause problems for the water supplies there (BBC, 2023). Moreover, the dam held back a reservoir that provided cooling water to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. In this line, the International Atomic Energy Agency assured that there is “no immediate nuclear safety risk at the plant” (Gavin et al., 2023).

Russian and Ukrainian officials said the dam collapsed due to an explosion and blamed each other for it. The Kremlin argued that the attack was carried out by Kyiv to “deprive Crimea of water,” while Zelensky says “Russian terrorists” are to blame (Hallam et. al, 2023). So far, neither side has provided evidence to back up their claims (Williams et al., 2023). Overall, Western leaders, strategic experts and mainstream media sources are mostly siding with Ukraine and believe Russia is behind the attack (Gavin et al., 2023).

References

BBC (2023, June 7). Ukraine dam: What we know about Nova Kakhovka incident. BBC.https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65818705.

Faulconbridge, G. (2023, June 7). Nova Kakhovka dam attack: what do we know so far? Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-is-kakhovka-dam-ukraine-what-happened-2023-06-07/.

Gavin, G., Camut, N. & Melkozerova, V. (2023, June 6). Key Ukrainian dam blown up, Kyiv blames Russia. Politico. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-dam-blow-up-evacuation-blame-russia-war-nova-kakhovka-hydroelectric-plant/.

The Guardian (2023, June 8). Kahkova dam: Zelensky visits flood-hit region and criticises international response. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/nova-kakhovka-dam-collapse-flood-first-flooding-deaths-reported-ukraine.

Hallam, J., Pennington, J., Regan, H., Voitovych, O., Nasser, I., Shukla, S., Kottasová, I., Mezzofiore, G. & Shelley, J. (2023, June 6). Collapse of critical Ukrainian dam sparks region-wide evacuations. Here’s what we know. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/06/europe/ukraine-nova-kakhovka-dam-breach-intl-hnk/index.html.

Williams, M., Trevelyan, M. & Dickie, G. (2023, June 7). Kakhova dam breach takes Ukraine war into uncharted territory. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/destruction-kakhovka-dam-takes-ukraine-war-into-uncharted-territory-2023-06-06/.

Yoon, J. & Opam, K. (2023, June 6). Ukraine Dam Disaster: What We Know. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/06/world/europe/ukraine-dam-explainer.html.