#War - Finabel

Toward Hybrid Deterrence: Conceptual Foundations and the Evolution of NATO Response

Hybrid threats, leveraging ambiguity and asymmetry, increasingly challenge NATO’s deterrence and credibility. This paper critically examines NATO’s doctrinal evolution and responses to hybrid threats since first acknowledging cyber challenges in 2002. Despite doctrinal progress and tools like Counter-Hybrid Support Teams (CHSTs) and initiatives such as Baltic Sentry, NATO’s response remains largely reactive and fragmented, activated only post-crisis rather than proactively deterring threats. Ambiguous attribution and contested thresholds further hinder collective action. The analysis highlights persistent strategic gaps and concludes by asserting that credible hybrid deterrence cannot be improvised post hoc but must be embedded systematically into NATO’s doctrine and operational architecture, a concept that will be further developed in a forthcoming companion article.

Comments Off

18 June 2025

News

Strategic Autonomy in Action: Europe’s Reassurance Force

On 10 April 2025, NATO hosted the last of a series of meetings of the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ (Gray & Van Overstraeten, 2025). The initiative, spearheaded by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and supported by French President Emmanuel Macron, was first introduced at the London Summit on Ukraine in March (Davies, 2025). Bringing together defence ministers from 30 nations, including Canada and Australia but excluding the United States (US), the coalition aims to establish a ‘reassurance force’ for Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire with Russia (Melkozerova, 2025). The group seeks a credible and lasting European-made peace, reducing the chances of a future invasion from Russia even without US security guarantees promised to the war-torn country. In the words of the British Defence Secretary, the aim is to “put Ukraine in the strongest possible position, to protect its sovereignty and deter further Russian aggression” (Gray & Van Overstraeten, 2025). The urgency of the project has grown amid declining U.S. support under the Trump administration, which has pushed Europe to assume greater responsibility for its own security as Washington pivots its strategic focus toward the Pacific.

Comments Off

6 May 2025

Info Flash

The Legal Concept of Neutrality: The Case of the Ukrainian – Russian War

As countries like Finland and Sweden shift away from neutrality to join NATO, the war has prompted a reevaluation of neutrality's relevance within European security. Mostly known as a political concept, this article explores the legal principle of neutrality in the context of the Ukrainian-Russian war, where military aid from numerous states has sparked debate on the boundaries of neutrality in modern conflicts. The narrow legal framework of neutrality highlights the ambivalence of the legal obligations of neutral states where abstention from supporting belligerents and help to a state defending against aggression coexist. Therefore, the rigidity of traditional neutrality law appears to be challenged by the ongoing war shifting towards more flexible interpretations in the face of collective security threats. Consequently, the need to adpat the legal doctrine in the rapidly changing landscape of international law and warfare underlines the obsolescence of the concept.

Comments Off

17 October 2024

Info Flash

Mine Clearance Technology and the Russo-Ukrainian War.

In 1997, the international community signed the Ottawa Treaty as a response to the humanitarian crisis caused by the global proliferation of anti-personnel mines. They agreed on banning the development, production, stockpiling, transfer and use of anti-personnel mines. Twenty-six years later, these explosive remnants continue causing around 5000 casualties per year. This number is significantly rising. In 2020, Syria was most affected by anti-personnel mines with at least 2729 casualties.

Comments Off

8 November 2023

Info Flash

France’s strategic pivot to Europe and its impact on the international fight against terrorism in the Sahel region

This Info Flash outlines the history of Operation Barkhane, offering a general overview of French and European efforts to maintain stability in the Sahel region over the past ten years. The principal causes of France’s disengagement are analysed taking into account external factors, such as the Russian-Ukrainian war at the end of February 2022. Because of the sensibility of this issue, Professor Luca Ranieri, one of the most prominent scholars dealing with security problems in the Sahel region, builds in an interview a critical assessment of Operation Barkhane. Understanding the main weaknesses of this initiative poses extreme usefulness in order to avoid repeating the same errors in the future.

Comments Off

16 February 2023

SUBSCRIBE