Read more about the article Finland in NATO – What’s Next?
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Finland in NATO – What’s Next?

Finland’s official entry into NATO on 4 April 2023 marked the culmination of a meticulously orchestrated 11-month accession process, catalysed by the destabilising events surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While Finland’s accession to NATO may appear straightforward, it was expedited in light of the urgent security imperatives prompted by the invasion. Nevertheless, the transition to NATO membership calls for careful consideration of the multifaceted security dynamics between Finland and the alliance. In this context, this paper endeavours to cast a forward-looking perspective, examining the future trajectory of NATO-Finnish cooperation post-accession. Concretely, it will look at what the next steps are that NATO and Finland could and/or should take after the latter’s accession to the former. Central to this exploration is an assessment of the potential avenues for Finland to further integrate into NATO’s operational framework. Specifically, a detailed analysis will be undertaken to evaluate the feasibility and implications of expanding NATO’s presence within Finnish territory through initiatives such as the enhanced forward presence (eFP). Then, the paper will explore the prospects for enhanced collaboration within the Northern Group, leveraging Finland’s NATO membership to deepen regional defence cooperation. Furthermore, consideration will be given to the merits of Finland joining the Bucharest Nine (B9) group, elucidating the potential benefits and strategic imperatives associated with such a move.

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28 February 2024
Read more about the article The ‘Ukraine Effect’: UK and EU Security Cooperation After the Ukraine Invasion
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The ‘Ukraine Effect’: UK and EU Security Cooperation After the Ukraine Invasion

Theresa May’s gnomic phrase ‘Brexit means Brexit’ echoed around British and international media outlets following the 2016 British referendum to withdraw from the European Union (EU). The ‘British Exit’, or ‘Brexit’, after a process lasting three years and overseen by various Conservative Party leaders, has indeed been achieved. However, the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine has posed a collective threat to the continent, including the United Kingdom (UK). With a renewed effort to cooperate on security matters, the ‘Brexit means Brexit’ aphorism has seemingly become tainted. With political analysts declaring that this renewed closeness is imperative both for saving Ukraine (Blewett-Mundy, 2024) and for the freedom and security of the UK and its EU neighbours (Ricketts, 2024), it is no surprise that there is an interest in analysing the increased momentum in EU-UK security cooperation. In this context, exploring how and why the UK and the EU have resumed their security cooperation is topical.

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27 February 2024
Read more about the article Unpacking the 2024 Munich Security Conference: The future of Europe’s Defence and Transatlantic Security Policy
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Unpacking the 2024 Munich Security Conference: The future of Europe’s Defence and Transatlantic Security Policy

This year marks the 60th anniversary of the Munich Security Conference (MSC). From February 16 to February 18, one of the central forums for debate on foreign and security policy took place in the Bavarian capital. The conference was marked by a palpable sense of urgency and concern regarding European defence. It was largely overshadowed by the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the fall of Avdiivka, the death/murder of Alexei Navalny, ammunition shortages in Ukraine, and former U.S. president and current Republican frontrunner Donald Trump’s comments on NATO (Dorman, 2024), all of which contributed to an uneasy atmosphere. This News Flash dissects the key topics and most significant issues and challenges in European defence and Transatlantic security policy covered throughout the conference. The present analysis explores the two following panel discussions as primary sources: (i) Europe’s Finest Hour? Building a Defense Union in Challenging Times (MSC, 2024a)and (ii) In It to Win It: The Future of Ukraine and Transatlantic Security (MSC, 2024b).

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27 February 2024
Read more about the article Poland’s reaction to the Ukraine war and its effects on the European Security Architecture
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Poland’s reaction to the Ukraine war and its effects on the European Security Architecture

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 immeasurably disturbed the European security landscape greatly fuelling fear of Russia's neo-imperialistic ambitions, particularly in the former Soviet sphere of influence. In Eastern Europe, especially in the Baltic states and Poland, these fears have grown steadily since Russia's hybrid forms of aggression against Ukraine in 2014. In particular, Poland has felt threatened by various hybrid threat scenarios since the beginning of Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, including a potential attack on its own territory. Poland's response to the war in Ukraine has been and continues to be influenced by both geographical and historical considerations. With a border shared with Russia's exclave, Kaliningrad, and the escalating tensions since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the fear of a Russian invasion through the Suwalki Gap, a crucial Polish-Lithuanian border, emerged as a concerning potential contingency since the collapse of the Eastern bloc. As a result, Poland has decided to act decisively.  In concrete terms, this has materialised as the massive expansion of its defence forces and staunch support for its attacked neighbour.

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26 February 2024
Read more about the article Russian Nuclear Strategy: Implications for Deterrence and Arms Control
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Russian Nuclear Strategy: Implications for Deterrence and Arms Control

Against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, expectations of a stable, predictable, and indivisible European security order have seemingly failed to materialise. Given the implications of the war, debates surrounding nuclear weapons returned to public scrutiny after long being confined to a niche of experts and policymakers. Arguably, the conflict triggered the most serious nuclear crisis since the end of the Cold War, which is exacerbated by the allusive wording of Russian officials and pundits regarding the use of nuclear weapons. Anxiety about Moscow’s first strike against Kyiv or its allies slowed down support for the invaded country. As such, this InfoFlash considers the implications of Russian nuclear posture for Ukraine and Europe, analysing the structure of Russian nuclear forces and doctrine, and their relations with Moscow’s strategic goals.

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23 February 2024