Romania’s Defence Industry at a Crossroads: Modernising Capabilities and Mitigating Dependencies through SAFE Funding

Romania will benefit from over €16 billion in funding through the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) mechanism, the second-largest allocation established by the European Commission. This fuels a newer and unique blend of growth opportunities for its defence capabilities. Romania's defence standing, strongly shaped by the country’s strategic position and its NATO and EU membership, has significant relevance for the traditional security landscape in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea area; more so in light of evolving hybrid threats posed by Russia’s destabilising attempts to extend its sphere of influence in the region. The paper assesses current structural vulnerabilities in Romania’s defence sector, and discusses how industrial cooperation with a host of European partners, if properly pursued, will allow Bucharest to strengthen the competitiveness of the state-owned company ROMARM while also mitigating the risks of external dependency on its closest ally, the U.S., for procurement of military equipment.

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Resilience and Rearmament: A Comparative Analysis of Russia’s Defence Industrial Base in 2025

This paper provides a comparative analysis of Russian and European defence industrial capacities in the aftermath of the 2022 Ukraine invasion amid the ongoing retreat of U.S. global security commitments. While Russia has demonstrated short-term resilience through mass production of tanks, artillery, and drones, it remains vulnerable due to technological dependencies and supply chain constraints. In contrast, the European Union, despite structural fragmentation, is mobilising towards strategic autonomy through initiatives like ASAP and EDIS. The study argues that Russia’s high-volume model may face sustainability limits, whereas Europe’s innovation-oriented, collaborative framework could offer long-term strategic depth. The research evaluates production trends, budgetary shifts, and geopolitical implications to assess the trajectory of both blocs in the emerging post-American security order.

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Can France’s Nuclear Deterrent Be Extended to Europe?

The Trump administration’s hostile rhetoric towards Europe, its seeming reluctance to uphold the United States’ (US) security guarantees, and Russia’s assertive behaviour on the international stage have led to a profound strategic debate on nuclear deterrence amongst Europeans. Some European leaders have questioned whether France could fill the nuclear deterrence gap left by the US, and Emmanuel Macron has initiated a strategic debate to this end. Extending the French nuclear deterrent to protect Europe will require it to be complemented by the United Kingdom’s (UK) own deterrent. It is a process that necessitates careful consulting between European allies, as well as an appropriate framework and doctrine in order to be effective. The question will also be whether France’s nuclear deterrent must complement or replace the US’. For European land forces, this shift signals a closer strategic alignment between European NATO allies and will influence the likeliness of high-intensity conflict in the future.

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Strategic Narratives: Russia’s Influence in Africa and the Challenge for Europe

Russia’s information operations in non-Western environments, particularly in African countries, have significant implications for European security and defence. Historical ties and prevailing sentiment in certain African states make them more susceptible to specific narratives that can be exploited to serve Russian strategic interests. This paper examines the mechanisms and objectives of Russia’s influence campaigns in these regions and assesses their impact on European interests. By analysing Russia’s methods and the vulnerabilities they target, the study aims to provide insight into potential countermeasures for both the EU and NATO. Strategic responses including strengthening digital resilience, enhancing diplomatic engagement, and fostering media literacy are explored as potential means to mitigate Russian influence and protect European security.

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From Resilience to Deterrence: Is the EU Shifting Toward Proactive Cyber Defence?

This paper examines the European Union’s evolving cyber defence strategy in response to the growing integration of cyber operations into hybrid warfare. It traces the EU’s doctrinal shift from a reactive, resilience-based posture to one that increasingly embraces proactive deterrence, including the potential use of offensive capabilities. By analysing key strategic documents and highlighting the case of France, the study illustrates both progress and limitations. While conceptual advances are evident, practical implementation remains a national competence. The paper concludes that translating strategic ambition into credible cyber deterrence will require legal clarity, interoperability, and coordinated capability development.

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