Written By: Leen Leclercq
Supervised By: Finn Seiffert, Élea Huguet
Edited By: Alexandra Huggins
ABSTRACT
The international architecture for nuclear arms control, grounded in bilateral treaties between the United States and Russia and multilateral instruments such as the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), has contributed to strategic stability and predictability for decades. In recent years, however, this structure has largely disappeared, with the most recent landmark being the expiry of the New START Treaty on 5 February 2026. This cannot be seen merely as the end of separate treaties; rather, it points to a broader shift towards an increasingly competitive and multipolar nuclear environment. At the same time, the non-proliferation regime is under pressure, partly due to frustration among non-nuclear-weapon states regarding the limited progress on disarmament. This paper analyses the erosion of the nuclear arms control framework in recent years and assesses its implications for Europe’s strategic environment in an increasingly multipolar nuclear order.
