Renegotiating Alliances: Trump’s America’s first foreign policy and the European Union’s quest for strategic autonomy

In light of Donald Trump’s second administration and its transactional America-first foreign policy, this paper considers the implications for European strategic autonomy amid the heightened importance of US security commitments and defence capabilities. Trump’s foreign policy is driven by the belief that Europeans have taken advantage of the US within the NATO alliance and international trade, and seeks to renegotiate trade agreements, returning manufacturing to the US and shifting its strategic orientation towards Asia. In the short term, this can constrain Europe’s strategic autonomy, as European capitals are pressured to accommodate the America-first agenda to ensure the US retains vital military capabilities in Europe and continues to provide military support to Ukraine. However, in the long term, the Trump administration’s pressure on allies to spend more on defence and a degree of ambiguity over security commitments reinforces the need for European strategic autonomy and accelerates the development of capacities that enable Europe to pursue its interests more independently.

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Defence Spending as Economic Policy? Military Keynesianism in Today’s European Context

This paper explores how recent European defence spending reflects a strategic application of military Keynesianism rather than a purely threat-driven response. While the term remains largely absent from official rhetoric, EU institutions and Member States have embraced its logic to confront a dual challenge: growing geopolitical insecurity and economic stagnation. By linking defence investment to industrial revival, regional cohesion, and political consensus-building, the EU uses military expenditure as a policy tool to stimulate growth and support rearmament. The paper identifies a secondary form of military Keynesianism, in which defence policy is deliberately bundled with broader economic objectives, showing a shift in the EU’s approach to both security and fiscal policy.

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The White Paper on Defence: How a Single Market Can Boost Efficiency and Interoperability

The 2025 White Paper on Defence outlines a strategic framework for enhancing European security through greater financial incentives, integration, and strategic autonomy. Aiming to address significant gaps such as underinvestment, industrial fragmentation, and capability deficiencies, the White Paper proposes a Single Market for Defence to streamline procurement, boost innovation, and strengthen partnerships. This article conducts a policy-driven critical analysis to assess the feasibility of the ambitious initiative, outlining the implications for reaching full-spectrum interoperability in the European defence sector. The paper emphasises that despite financial and political challenges, implementing a Single Market for Defence would establish a more resilient and autonomous European security architecture, ensuring preparedness against evolving security threats.

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