What to expect: a quick overview of the (possible) challenges of 2022

It is very challenging - if not impossible - to predict what exactly is going to happen in the next twelve months. At the present, Nostradamus is not listed among the authors of Finabel. However, it is possible to outline some of the main themes of discussion and to point out some possible trends. It is important to stress that the quite normally some of the main themes that will be delineated in this article will be overtaken and made superfluous by unpredictable events. Nonetheless, here at Finabel we believe that these might be some interesting topics, which stimulates discussions and debates regarding possible implications that fall well beyond 2022.

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The Berlin Security Conference: “Europe – Developing Capabilities for a credible Defence”

The Congress was organised by the Behörden Spiegel and supported by an Advisory Board made up of distinguished international people. It is one of Europe’s major defence and security discussion forums: since 2001, the conference and exhibition in Berlin have drawn representatives from European and non-European nations, as well as European organisations and NATO. The focus is on presenting and debating real solutions to improve European and transatlantic political, strategic, and tactical collaboration, to find solutions to reduce tensions caused by limited capabilities, poor standardisation, a lack of interoperability, disparities in support levels, and national limits. As a result, transatlantic integration and future arrangements were the primary focus of the meeting.

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A Cohesive Response to the Belarus Border Crisis?

In August 2020, the Belarusian election was widely seen as fraudulent, rigged to ensure that the so-called “last dictator of Europe” remained in power, which led to widespread international condemnation. It also prompted the EU to adopt sanctions against the regime under Article 215 TFEU, aimed at securing the end of autocratic rule and the reorganisation of elections. This led to a heightened antagonism between the EU and Belarus, culminating in last month’s border crisis. Indeed, the Belarusian government relaxed its visa entry requirements in August (Loanes, vox, 2021) in an apparent attempt to incentivise migrants to privilege the Belarusian route into the EU and funnel in a large number of people in the hope of creating political difficulties within the Union, thus weakening it.

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DATA: The Future of Warfare

Over the last twenty years, the importance of the latest weapons in modern warfare has been called into question. Indeed, it has been largely debated that victory in future high-intensity conflicts may no longer be contingent on who possesses the best warships, planes, and tanks (i.e., the best equipment) but rather on who can better handle information to act faster and more effectively than their adversary (Work & Fabian, Breaking Defense, 2021). Future wars are expected to be short, precise, and decisive. This new kind of warfare may require decisions to be made within hours, minutes or potentially seconds, compared with the current multi-day process to analyse the operating environment and issue commands. That is the reason why last May, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin approved the strategy document for the Defense Department’s Joint All-Domain Command and Control, paving the way to implement technology that shares data between the services to improve the quality and speed of tactical decision-making (Jasper, NextGov, 2021).

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The ESSOR project: Securing a new system of tactical communications for EU common defence

In the last decades, the birth of super-fast integrated computer systems and the role of artificial intelligence (Al) in information systems have deeply affected both the civilian sector and the defence and security sectors. Cybersecurity, surveillance systems, state of the art AI, and automated software have played a central role in combating terrorism and establishing effective communication between different organisations without being interfered with or intercepted by the enemy.

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